Rams vs Buccaneers — Week 3, 2016
The Rams took over leading 37-32 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 37, Buccaneers 32. Rams won 37-32 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 89.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) 30-T.Gurley right end to LA 9 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston, 98-C.McDonald).
- (2:05) 17-C.Keenum up the middle to LA 5 for -4 yards (98-C.McDonald).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 18-K.Britt.
- (1:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 44 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.22 pts |
| Quick out | -1.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.96 pts |
| Play action | -3.31 pts |
| Curl route | -3.55 pts |
| End-around | -5.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.25 pts |
| Deep post | -8.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.