Dolphins vs Jets — Week 9, 2016
The Dolphins took over leading 27-23 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 27, Jets 23. Dolphins won 27-23 — the drive time expired.
Dolphins ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.6% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 88.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi up the middle to NYJ 45 for 9 yards (51-J.Stanford).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right end to NYJ 47 for -2 yards (24-D.Revis).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to NYJ 25 for 20 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to NYJ 26 for -1 yards (92-L.Williams).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to NYJ 10 for 16 yards (21-M.Gilchrist, 24-D.Revis).
- (:20) 17-R.Tannehill kneels to NYJ 11 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -2.15 pts |
| Curl route | -2.29 pts |
| End-around | -4.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.44 pts |
| Deep post | -7.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.