Chiefs vs Jaguars — Week 9, 2016
The Chiefs took over leading 19-14 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14. Chiefs won 19-14 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.4% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 85.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 34-K.Davis up the middle to KC 29 for 4 yards (56-D.Fowler).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 4-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (50-T.Smith).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 4-N.Foles sacked at KC 18 for -11 yards (99-S.Marks).
- (3:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 35 for 12 yards (57-D.Alexander).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.20 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -2.11 pts |
| Curl route | -2.21 pts |
| End-around | -4.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.31 pts |
| Deep post | -7.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.