Patriots vs Seahawks — Week 10, 2016
The Patriots took over trailing 31-24 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Seahawks 31. Seahawks won 31-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.9% for Patriots. Our model starts at 13.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 88-M.Bennett pushed ob at NE 33 for 8 yards (50-K.Wright). NE 88-Bennett 5th career 100-yard game.
- (4:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 19-M.Mitchell to NE 46 for 13 yards (52-B.Coyle; 25-R.Sherman).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 49 for 3 yards (52-B.Coyle).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to SEA 49 for 2 yards (31-K.Chancellor; 55-F.Clark).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 11-J.Edelman to SEA 24 for 30 yards (29-E.Thomas; 25-R.Sherman).
- (2:00) 29-L.Blount left end to SEA 28 for -4 yards (93-T.McDaniel).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to SEA 2 for 26 yards (35-D.Shead). NE 12-Brady 75th career 300-yard game, 3rd most all-time.
- (:43) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle to SEA 1 for 1 yard (90-J.Reed; 93-T.McDaniel).
- (:37) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle to SEA 1 for no gain (31-K.Chancellor).
- (:19) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 1, and recovers at SEA 2. 12-T.Brady to SEA 2 for no gain (91-C.Marsh).
- (:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Gronkowski.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| End-around | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.