Raiders vs Ravens — Week 4, 2016
The Raiders took over trailing 27-21 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 28, Ravens 27. Raiders won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 34, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 17.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree to LV 49 for 15 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree ran ob at BAL 40 for 11 yards.
- (2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 30-J.Richard.
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-C.Walford to BAL 23 for 17 yards (54-Z.Orr).
- (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Walford (32-E.Weddle). Clive Walford (LV) injured on play.
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| End-around | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.