Colts vs Lions — Week 1, 2016
The Colts took over trailing 34-28 with 4:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Colts 35, Lions 39. Lions won 39-35 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 15.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to IND 34 for 9 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
- (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-F.Gore right end to IND 41 for 7 yards (98-D.Taylor).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-P.Dorsett to DET 26 for 33 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 15-P.Dorsett to DET 21 for 5 yards (23-D.Slay) [94-E.Ansah].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle to DET 12 for 9 yards (24-N.Lawson; 59-T.Whitehead).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton to DET 12 for no gain (23-D.Slay).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 10-D.Moncrief to DET 6 for 6 yards (24-N.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.