Commanders vs Cowboys — Week 2, 2016
The Commanders took over trailing 27-23 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Cowboys 27. Cowboys won 27-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Commanders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 27.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) 31-M.Jones left tackle to WAS 28 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins).
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 5 yards (32-O.Scandrick).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 2 yards (56-J.Durant).
- (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 25-C.Thompson.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder to WAS 44 for 9 yards (32-O.Scandrick).
- (2:38) 25-C.Thompson left end to WAS 44 for no gain (50-S.Lee).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Garcon (56-J.Durant).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.10 pts |
| Deep post | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.13 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.