Cardinals vs Patriots — Week 1, 2016
The Cardinals took over trailing 23-21 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 21, Patriots 23. Patriots won 23-21 — the drive missed field goal.
Cardinals ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 8, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.8% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 35.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 12-J.Brown to ARI 16 for 8 yards (23-P.Chung).
- (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 37 for 21 yards (30-D.Harmon).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short left to 13-Ja.Brown (22-J.Coleman).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to NE 48 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 15-M.Floyd (91-J.Collins).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 31-D.Johnson pushed ob at NE 44 for 4 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to NE 34 for 10 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson right tackle to NE 33 for 1 yard (54-D.Hightower).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 38-A.Ellington to NE 47 for -4 yards (93-J.Sheard).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 13-Ja.Brown to NE 29 for 18 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (:41) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.64 pts |
| Curl route | -1.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.85 pts |
| Outside run | -2.06 pts |
| Inside run | -2.14 pts |
| Play action | -2.19 pts |
| Deep post | -2.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.79 pts |
| End-around | -3.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.