Vikings vs Lions — Week 9, 2016
The Vikings took over trailing 13-9 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 16, Lions 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 21, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.5% for Vikings. Our model starts at 24.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to MIN 24 for 3 yards (94-E.Ansah).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen.
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to DET 47 for 29 yards (31-R.Bush) [61-K.Hyder].
- (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to DET 30 for 17 yards (32-T.Wilson) [52-A.Williams].
- (2:23) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to DET 29 for 1 yard (27-G.Quin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to DET 22 for 7 yards (24-N.Lawson). DET-24-N.Lawson was injured during the play.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Patterson.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to DET 11 for 6 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 82-K.Rudolph (91-A.Robinson).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 3 for 8 yards (59-T.Whitehead).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to DET 2 for 1 yard (29-J.Bademosi).
- (:46) (No Huddle) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to DET 1 for 1 yard (32-T.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Deep post | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.