Rams vs Bills — Week 5, 2016
The Rams took over trailing 23-19 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Rams 19, Bills 30. Bills won 30-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.5% for Rams. Our model starts at 26.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-T.Gurley pushed ob at LA 21 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander).
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to LA 23 for 2 yards (95-K.Williams).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 88-L.Kendricks (57-L.Alexander).
- (3:47) (Punt formation) 15-B.Marquez right end to LA 25 for 2 yards (28-R.Darby).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| QB keep | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | -0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Deep post | -0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Outside run | -0.98 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Inside run | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.93 pts |
| End-around | -2.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.13 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.