Giants vs Patriots — Week 21, 2007
The Giants took over trailing 14-10 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
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What really happened
Final: Giants 17, Patriots 14. Giants won 17-14 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Giants ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 22.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 28 for 11 yards (37-R.Harrison).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 17-P.Burress.
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 17-P.Burress.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 37 for 9 yards (37-R.Harrison).
- (1:34) 27-B.Jacobs up the middle to NYG 39 for 2 yards (75-V.Wilfork, 93-R.Seymour).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning scrambles right tackle to NYG 44 for 5 yards (96-A.Thomas).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 85-D.Tyree.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 85-D.Tyree to NE 24 for 32 yards (37-R.Harrison).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NE 25 for -1 yards (96-A.Thomas).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Tyree (31-B.Meriweather).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 12-S.Smith pushed ob at NE 13 for 12 yards (31-B.Meriweather).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 17-P.Burress for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Outside run | -1.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| Inside run | -1.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.99 pts |
| End-around | -2.05 pts |
| Spike it | -2.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.