Cowboys vs Bills — Week 5, 2007

What really happened

Final: Cowboys 25, Bills 24. Cowboys won 25-24 — the drive scored.

Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 3:45 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 8.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:08) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 84-P.Crayton to DAL 27 for 12 yards (38-J.Butler). Crossing pattern, caught at DAL 20 moving right.
2. (2:54) 24-M.Barber right tackle to DAL 35 for 8 yards (24-T.McGee, 20-D.Whitner).
3. (2:39) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass incomplete short right to 24-M.Barber (24-T.McGee). Receiver and coverage at DAL 38.
4. (2:33) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 82-J.Witten to DAL 45 for 10 yards (38-J.Butler). Caught at DAL 43.
5. (2:05) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 24-M.Barber to BUF 47 for 8 yards (55-A.Crowell). Shovel pass, caught at DAL 40.
6. (1:57) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 82-J.Witten to BUF 38 for 9 yards (52-J.DiGiorgio). Completed under pressure: A.Hargrove.
7. (1:29) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 84-P.Crayton pushed ob at BUF 27 for 11 yards (24-T.McGee). Crossing pattern, caught at BUF 33 going right.
8. (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 24-M.Barber to BUF 20 for 7 yards (38-J.Butler). Caught in flat at BUF 25.
9. (:53) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass incomplete short middle to 82-J.Witten [95-K.Williams]. Thrown under pressure, receiver at BUF 18.
10. (:47) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 82-J.Witten to BUF 14 for 6 yards (25-K.Thomas). Caught at BUF 15.
11. (:40) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 24-M.Barber to BUF 4 for 10 yards (20-D.Whitner). Caught in flat at BUF 13.
12. (:24) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 84-P.Crayton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.