Bills vs Browns — Week 15, 2007
The Bills took over trailing 8-0 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bills 0, Browns 8. Browns won 8-0 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 30, 1:51 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.0% for Bills. Our model starts at 5.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short middle to 83-L.Evans (51-C.Thompson).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 82-J.Reed pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (26-S.Jones) [95-K.Wimbley].
- (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete deep left to 83-L.Evans.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 22-F.Jackson ran ob at CLE 35 for 15 yards (94-L.Williams).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete deep left to 83-L.Evans.
- (:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short left to 83-L.Evans.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete deep middle to 84-R.Royal.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle to 83-L.Evans to CLE 15 for 20 yards (22-B.McDonald).
- (:47) (No Huddle) 5-T.Edwards spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short left to 82-J.Reed pushed ob at CLE 10 for 5 yards (21-B.Pool).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Parrish.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 22-F.Jackson to CLE 10 for no gain (51-C.Thompson, 26-S.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.71 pts |
| Curl route | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Spike it | -0.59 pts |
| End-around | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.