Cardinals vs Panthers — Week 6, 2007
The Cardinals took over trailing 18-10 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 10, Panthers 25. Panthers won 25-10 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 12-T.Rattay pass short right to 45-T.Smith pushed ob at ARI 24 for 4 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Rattay pass incomplete short right to 45-T.Smith.
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Rattay pass short left to 80-Bry.Johnson to ARI 37 for 13 yards (31-R.Marshall).
- (4:02) 12-T.Rattay pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to 50 for 13 yards (35-D.Cooper).
- (3:26) 12-T.Rattay pass deep middle intended for 85-J.Urban INTERCEPTED by 35-D.Cooper (31-R.Marshall) at CAR 11. 35-D.Cooper to CAR 11 for no gain (85-J.Urban).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.50 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| End-around | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.94 pts |
| Spike it | -1.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.