Bears vs Vikings — Week 15, 2007
The Bears took over trailing 20-13 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 13, Vikings 20. Vikings won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 10, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short middle to 82-G.Olsen to CHI 15 for 5 yards (56-E.Henderson).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 87-M.Muhammad pushed ob at CHI 34 for 19 yards (42-D.Sharper).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 23-D.Hester to CHI 45 for 11 yards (23-C.Griffin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass incomplete short middle to 29-A.Peterson [93-K.Williams].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle intended for 80-B.Berrian INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Sharper at MIN -2. 42-D.Sharper to MIN 39 for 41 yards (87-M.Muhammad).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.07 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.07 pts |
| Curl route | -0.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.62 pts |
| Play action | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.67 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.82 pts |
| Spike it | -0.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| End-around | -1.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.