Buccaneers vs 49ers — Week 16, 2007
The Buccaneers took over trailing 21-13 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 19, 49ers 21. 49ers won 21-19 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 39, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.7% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 8.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass incomplete to 29-M.Bennett.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass deep right to 81-A.Smith ran ob at SF 40 for 21 yards. Caught at SF 41.
- (2:33) 12-L.McCown pass incomplete to 17-M.Spurlock (97-B.Young).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass short right to 29-M.Bennett to SF 32 for 8 yards (22-N.Clements; 32-M.Lewis). Caught at SF 33.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass short left to 80-M.Clayton to SF 32 for no gain (32-M.Lewis).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass to 80-M.Clayton to SF 14 for 18 yards (26-M.Roman). Caught at SF 30. PENALTY on TB-17-M.Spurlock, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced between downs.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass incomplete short right to 80-M.Clayton.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 12-L.McCown pass to 86-J.Stevens for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 3.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-L.McCown pass to 80-M.Clayton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. M.Clayton caught pass outside back of end zone.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.86 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| End-around | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -0.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.