Packers vs Giants — Week 20, 2007
The Packers took over tied at 20 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
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What really happened
Final: Packers 20, Giants 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 17, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.4% for Packers. Our model starts at 52.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 25-R.Grant.
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Lee.
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 86-D.Lee to GB 17 for 5 yards (55-K.Mitchell, 31-A.Ross).
- (2:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to GB 48, Center-60-R.Davis. 25-R.McQuarters to GB 38 for 10 yards (59-T.White). FUMBLES (59-T.White), touched at GB 41, recovered by NYG-87-D.Hixon at GB 48. 87-D.Hixon to GB 48 for no gain (35-K.Hall).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.42 pts |
| Curl route | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.31 pts |
| Play action | -0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.24 pts |
| Inside run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.14 pts |
| Deep post | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| End-around | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.