Colts vs Chargers — Week 19, 2007
The Colts took over trailing 28-24 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
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What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Chargers 28. Chargers won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 23, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 27.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark to IND 37 for 14 yards (29-D.Florence, 54-S.Cooper).
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 87-R.Wayne to IND 48 for 11 yards (54-S.Cooper).
- (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 80-D.Aromashodu pushed ob at LAC 39 for 13 yards (23-Q.Jammer).
- (3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 11-A.Gonzalez to LAC 34 for 5 yards (31-A.Cromartie).
- (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 80-D.Aromashodu.
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Wayne.
- (3:02) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark to LAC 18 for 16 yards (32-E.Weddle). PENALTY on LAC-95-S.Phillips, Face Mask (15 Yards), 9 yards, enforced at LAC 18.
- (2:51) 29-J.Addai up the middle to LAC 7 for 2 yards (95-S.Phillips, 23-Q.Jammer).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 29-J.Addai (29-D.Florence).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 29-J.Addai (95-S.Phillips).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 29-J.Addai [56-S.Merriman].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Deep post | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.07 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.