Giants vs Cowboys — Week 19, 2007
The Giants took over leading 21-17 with 3:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
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What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Cowboys 17. Giants won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Giants ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 12, 3:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 71.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 81.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:46) 44-A.Bradshaw up the middle to NYG 16 for 4 yards (97-J.Hatcher).
- (2:58) 44-A.Bradshaw right guard to NYG 18 for 2 yards (97-J.Hatcher; 51-A.Ayodele).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 14 for -4 yards (66-T.Johnson).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 18-J.Feagles punts 42 yards to DAL 44, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-P.Crayton to NYG 48 for 8 yards (37-Ja.Butler).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.89 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Quick out | -1.63 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -2.59 pts |
| Curl route | -2.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.68 pts |
| End-around | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.39 pts |
| Deep post | -7.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.