Steelers vs Jaguars — Week 18, 2007
The Steelers took over leading 29-28 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
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What really happened
Final: Steelers 29, Jaguars 31. Jaguars won 31-29 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Steelers ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 22, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 62.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) 44-N.Davenport right guard to PIT 27 for 5 yards (97-R.Hayward).
- (3:02) 44-N.Davenport left tackle to PIT 26 for -1 yards (26-S.Knight; 29-B.Williams).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger left tackle to PIT 27 for 1 yard (26-S.Knight).
- (2:50) (Punt formation) 9-D.Sepulveda punts 40 yards to JAX 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 86-D.Northcutt to JAX 49 for 16 yards (60-G.Warren).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.78 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Curl route | +0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Play action | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.