Colts vs Titans — Week 17, 2007
The Colts took over trailing 16-10 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 10, Titans 16. Titans won 16-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 12.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) 12-J.Sorgi pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Aromashodu. Penalty on IND-15-C.Thorpe, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-J.Sorgi pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Aromashodu.
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 12-J.Sorgi pass short right to 15-C.Thorpe to IND 24 for -1 yards (22-V.Fuller).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 12-J.Sorgi pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Aromashodu (37-C.Lowry).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| Deep post | +0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| End-around | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.