Bears vs Broncos — Week 12, 2007
The Bears took over trailing 34-27 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Bears 34, Broncos 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.6% for Bears. Our model starts at 11.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 8-R.Grossman pass short right to 23-D.Hester pushed ob at CHI 36 for 1 yard (52-I.Gold).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 8-R.Grossman pass incomplete short right to 82-G.Olsen.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-R.Grossman pass incomplete short right to 82-G.Olsen.
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-R.Grossman pass short middle to 80-B.Berrian to 50 for 9 yards (24-C.Bailey).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 29-A.Peterson left guard to CHI 48 for -2 yards (97-K.Peterson).
- (2:00) 8-R.Grossman pass deep left to 81-R.Davis to DEN 31 for 21 yards (21-H.Abdullah).
- (1:39) (No Huddle) 8-R.Grossman pass short middle to 87-M.Muhammad to DEN 18 for 13 yards (22-D.Foxworth).
- (1:22) (No Huddle) 29-A.Peterson right guard to DEN 7 for 11 yards (55-D.Williams, 52-I.Gold).
- (1:01) (No Huddle) 29-A.Peterson right tackle to DEN 4 for 3 yards (21-H.Abdullah).
- (:42) (No Huddle) 29-A.Peterson right guard to DEN 3 for 1 yard (96-T.Crowder).
- (:36) 8-R.Grossman pass incomplete short left to 80-B.Berrian (41-K.Paymah).
- (:32) 8-R.Grossman pass short right to 80-B.Berrian for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| Deep post | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.