Browns vs Bengals — Week 16, 2007
The Browns took over trailing 19-14 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 14, Bengals 19. Bengals won 19-14 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 13.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 29-J.Wright to CLE 21 for 12 yards (57-Dh.Jones; 24-D.O'Neal).
- (1:17) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Jurevicius.
- (1:13) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 17-B.Edwards to CLE 34 for 12 yards (29-L.Hall).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 29-J.Wright to CLE 45 for 11 yards (29-L.Hall; 57-Dh.Jones).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 80-K.Winslow to CIN 44 for 11 yards (41-C.Ndukwe).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 80-K.Winslow pushed ob at CIN 44 for no gain (41-C.Ndukwe).
- (:18) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep middle to 17-B.Edwards (57-Dh.Jones).
- (:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 84-J.Jurevicius to CIN 35 for 9 yards (46-B.Adams).
- (:06) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson scrambles right end ran ob at CIN 29 for 6 yards (68-J.Fanene).
- (:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep middle to 80-K.Winslow (22-J.Joseph).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.89 pts |
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.03 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.73 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.77 pts |
| Outside run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.41 pts |
| Inside run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.