Raiders vs Colts — Week 15, 2007
The Raiders took over trailing 21-14 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 14, Colts 21. Colts won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 45, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 18.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) 12-J.McCown pass to 84-J.Porter to IND 48 for 7 yards (43-M.Giordano; 60-J.Charleston).
- (4:07) 33-D.Rhodes left tackle to IND 45 for 3 yards (91-J.Thomas).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 12-J.McCown pass to 33-D.Rhodes to IND 36 for 9 yards (54-F.Keiaho).
- (2:48) 33-D.Rhodes right end pushed ob at IND 17 for 19 yards (43-M.Giordano).
- (2:40) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete deep left to 84-J.Porter.
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 33-D.Rhodes left end to IND 16 for 1 yard (21-B.Sanders).
- (2:00) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete deep right to 84-J.Porter.
- (1:54) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Porter.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| End-around | -1.26 pts |
| Spike it | -1.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.