49ers vs Rams — Week 11, 2007
The 49ers took over trailing 13-6 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 9, Rams 13. Rams won 13-9 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 37, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 15.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer sacked at SF 28 for -4 yards (25-C.Chavous).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass deep middle to 83-A.Battle to LA 45 for 27 yards (54-B.Chillar).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass deep middle to 83-A.Battle to LA 28 for 17 yards (21-O.Atogwe). Caught at LA 29.
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass incomplete deep middle to 85-V.Davis (50-P.Tinoisamoa).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass incomplete deep middle to 82-D.Jackson.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Jackson (26-T.Hill).
- (1:55) 6-J.Nedney 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.71 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| End-around | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.