Texans vs Titans — Week 7, 2007
The Texans took over trailing 35-29 with 1:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 36, Titans 38. Titans won 38-36 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 34, 1:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.0% for Texans. Our model starts at 11.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rosenfels pass short left to 89-D.Anderson to HOU 47 for 8 yards (22-V.Fuller) [98-A.Odom].
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rosenfels pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Green.
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rosenfels pass deep middle to 11-A.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.32 pts |
| Curl route | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.78 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.80 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Spike it | -1.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.