Ravens vs Steelers — Week 17, 2007
The Ravens took over leading 27-21 with 3:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Steelers 21. Ravens won 27-21 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 88.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:36) 32-M.Smith up the middle to BAL 22 for 2 yards (99-B.Keisel, 22-W.Gay).
- (2:55) 10-T.Smith pass short left to 33-J.Green to BAL 32 for 10 yards (23-T.Carter).
- (2:11) 32-M.Smith left guard to BAL 29 for -3 yards (92-J.Harrison, 22-W.Gay).
- (2:04) 10-T.Smith pass short right to 32-M.Smith to BAL 29 for no gain (51-J.Farrior).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 34-C.Ross up the middle to BAL 33 for 4 yards (99-B.Keisel, 90-T.Kirschke).
- (1:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to PIT 11, Center-70-M.Katula, downed by BAL.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.84 pts |
| QB keep | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.32 pts |
| Curl route | -2.51 pts |
| End-around | -4.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.63 pts |
| Deep post | -8.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.