Buccaneers vs Commanders — Week 12, 2007
The Buccaneers took over leading 19-13 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 19, Commanders 13. Buccaneers won 19-13 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 31, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.9% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 90.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 34-E.Graham right end to TB 35 for 4 yards (94-A.Montgomery).
- (3:33) 34-E.Graham left guard to TB 37 for 2 yards (94-A.Montgomery).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass incomplete deep middle to 84-J.Galloway.
- (3:20) (Punt formation) 9-J.Bidwell punts 52 yards to WAS 11, Center-48-A.Economos. 80-K.McCardell to WAS 14 for 3 yards (17-M.Spurlock). PENALTY on WAS-39-V.Fox, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at WAS 14.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.89 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| QB keep | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.50 pts |
| Curl route | -2.74 pts |
| End-around | -4.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.84 pts |
| Deep post | -8.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.