Giants vs Lions — Week 11, 2007
The Giants took over leading 16-10 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Giants 16, Lions 10. Giants won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 27, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 88.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 22-R.Droughns up the middle to NYG 28 for 1 yard (26-K.Kennedy; 50-E.Sims).
- (3:49) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 39-M.Hedgecock to NYG 33 for 5 yards (21-T.Fisher, 50-E.Sims).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 26 for -7 yards (98-K.Edwards).
- (2:33) 18-J.Feagles punts 42 yards to DET 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 17-T.Walters.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| QB keep | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.41 pts |
| Curl route | -2.60 pts |
| End-around | -4.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.69 pts |
| Deep post | -8.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.