Colts vs Texans — Week 3, 2007
The Colts took over leading 30-24 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 30, Texans 24. Colts won 30-24 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 27, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.5% for Colts. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) 29-J.Addai left tackle to IND 28 for 6 yards (59-D.Ryans).
- (2:41) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-M.Harrison to IND 40 for 12 yards (38-D.Faggins).
- (2:28) 29-J.Addai left end to IND 42 for 2 yards (98-A.Weaver).
- (2:00) 29-J.Addai left end to IND 45 for 3 yards (98-A.Weaver).
- (1:16) 29-J.Addai left end to IND 49 for 4 yards (34-V.Hutchins).
- (:25) 17-H.Smith punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-J.Snow, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick out | -0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| QB keep | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Play action | -2.51 pts |
| Curl route | -2.76 pts |
| End-around | -4.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.88 pts |
| Deep post | -8.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.