Rams vs Falcons — Week 13, 2007
The Rams took over leading 21-16 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Rams 28, Falcons 16. Rams won 28-16 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 89.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) 39-S.Jackson up the middle to LA 11 for 2 yards (54-S.Nicholas).
- (2:07) 39-S.Jackson left guard to LA 11 for no gain (36-L.Milloy). LA-23-B.Leonard was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 12-G.Frerotte pass incomplete short left to 83-D.Bennett (23-C.Houston).
- (1:56) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to ATL 42, Center-45-C.Massey. 81-A.Jennings pushed ob at ATL 48 for 6 yards (49-R.Owens).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.25 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.06 pts |
| Deep post | -8.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.