Eagles vs Jets — Week 6, 2007
The Eagles took over leading 16-9 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 16, Jets 9. Eagles won 16-9 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 4, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 92.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) 36-B.Westbrook right guard to PHI 6 for 2 yards (51-J.Vilma, 25-K.Rhodes).
- (2:49) 36-B.Westbrook right end to PHI 7 for 1 yard (54-V.Hobson, 51-J.Vilma).
- (2:08) 5-D.McNabb pass short right to 86-R.Brown to PHI 20 for 13 yards (36-D.Barrett).
- (1:58) 36-B.Westbrook left guard to PHI 42 for 22 yards (25-K.Rhodes).
- (1:47) 36-B.Westbrook right end to PHI 45 for 3 yards (50-E.Barton).
- (1:40) 36-B.Westbrook right guard to PHI 49 for 4 yards (25-K.Rhodes, 93-K.Coleman).
- (:55) 36-B.Westbrook right guard to NYJ 30 for 21 yards (25-K.Rhodes).
- (:07) 5-D.McNabb kneels to NYJ 31 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.19 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| QB keep | -1.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.01 pts |
| Play action | -3.33 pts |
| Curl route | -3.81 pts |
| End-around | -5.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.58 pts |
| Deep post | -9.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.