Vikings vs Broncos — Week 17, 2007
The Vikings took over trailing 19-11 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
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What really happened
Final: Vikings 19, Broncos 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 35, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Vikings. Our model starts at 10.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 84-A.Allison.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson up the middle to DEN 28 for 32 yards (24-C.Bailey).
- (3:22) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to DEN 22 for 6 yards (97-K.Peterson, 55-D.Williams).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 89-R.Ferguson.
- (2:30) 7-T.Jackson pass deep left to 19-B.Wade for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-T.Jackson rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Deep post | +0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| End-around | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
| Spike it | -1.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.