Jets vs Chiefs — Week 17, 2007
The Jets took over tied at 10 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Jets 10, Chiefs 10. Tied 10-10 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 56.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete short right to 81-J.McCareins (24-T.Law).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass short middle to 29-L.Washington to NYJ 36 for 11 yards (50-Na.Harris).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Cotchery [91-T.Hali]. New York Jets challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass short left to 89-J.Cotchery to NYJ 47 for 11 yards (23-P.Surtain).
- (2:00) 29-L.Washington right end to NYJ 47 for no gain (50-Na.Harris).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete short right to 15-W.Wright.
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens scrambles right tackle to 50 for 3 yards (56-D.Johnson).
- (1:26) 7-B.Graham punts 44 yards to KC 11, Center-85-J.Dearth. 85-E.Drummond to KC 15 for 4 yards (96-D.Bowens).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.35 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Curl route | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.19 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.95 pts |
| Deep post | -2.46 pts |
| End-around | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.