Saints vs Panthers — Week 5, 2007
The Saints took over tied at 13 with 3:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 13, Panthers 16. Panthers won 16-13 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 53.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:47) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 19-D.Henderson to NO 37 for 12 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (3:17) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle (90-J.Peppers).
- (3:11) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 19-D.Henderson INTERCEPTED by 43-C.Harris at CAR 33. 43-C.Harris to NO 37 for 30 yards (82-E.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.81 pts |
| Curl route | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.09 pts |
| End-around | -2.47 pts |
| Deep post | -2.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.