Texans vs Dolphins — Week 5, 2007
The Texans took over tied at 19 with 1:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Texans 22, Dolphins 19. Texans won 22-19 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 3, 1:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Texans. Our model starts at 55.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:33) 35-S.Gado to HOU 4 for 1 yard (54-Z.Thomas).
- (:54) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 81-O.Daniels pushed ob at HOU 23 for 19 yards (24-R.Hill).
- (:47) 8-M.Schaub pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Anderson.
- (:42) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 81-O.Daniels to HOU 37 for 14 yards (22-M.Lehan).
- (:36) 8-M.Schaub pass deep middle to 89-D.Anderson to MIA 44 for 19 yards (22-M.Lehan).
- (:22) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 83-K.Walter to MIA 38 for 6 yards (25-W.Allen).
- (:22) 8-M.Schaub spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:06) 3-K.Brown 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (-0.07 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | -0.07 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.30 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.93 pts |
| QB keep | -1.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.99 pts |
| Outside run | -2.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.13 pts |
| Inside run | -2.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Play action | -3.30 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.44 pts |
| Deep post | -4.56 pts |
| End-around | -4.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.