Raiders vs Broncos — Week 2, 2007
The Raiders took over tied at 20 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Broncos 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 58.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) 34-L.Jordan right tackle to LV 31 for 5 yards (60-J.Engelberger).
- (2:00) 34-L.Jordan left tackle to LV 33 for 7 yards (47-J.Lynch).
- (1:16) 34-L.Jordan right guard to LV 38 for 5 yards (97-S.Rice; 63-A.Gordon).
- (:38) 34-L.Jordan left tackle to LV 41 for 13 yards (25-N.Ferguson).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Porter.
- (:27) (Shotgun) 12-J.McCown pass deep left intended for 84-J.Porter INTERCEPTED by 32-D.Bly at DEN 17. 32-D.Bly to DEN 17 for no gain (84-J.Porter).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| QB keep | +1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.94 pts |
| Deep post | -2.51 pts |
| End-around | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.