Cardinals vs Falcons — Week 16, 2007
The Cardinals took over tied at 24 with 4:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 27, Falcons 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.0% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 53.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:39) 32-E.James up the middle to ARI 22 for 2 yards (96-M.Stanley).
- (4:04) 13-K.Warner pass short left to 45-T.Smith to ARI 25 for 3 yards (95-J.Babineaux, 56-K.Brooking).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Patrick (36-L.Milloy).
- (3:14) 17-M.Berger punts 50 yards to ATL 25, Center-48-N.Hodel. 21-D.Hall to ATL 41 for 16 yards (97-C.Pace).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Curl route | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.30 pts |
| Play action | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.41 pts |
| End-around | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep post | -3.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.