Jaguars vs Buccaneers — Week 8, 2007
The Jaguars took over leading 24-23 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 23. Jaguars won 24-23 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. Backed up at their own 3, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 58.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 28-F.Taylor left guard to JAX 6 for 3 yards (93-K.Carter, 51-B.Ruud).
- (4:03) 28-F.Taylor up the middle to JAX 7 for 1 yard (95-C.Hovan, 55-D.Brooks).
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 5-Q.Gray pass short right to 33-G.Jones to JAX 25 for 18 yards (51-B.Ruud).
- (2:30) 32-M.Jones-Drew right tackle to JAX 27 for 2 yards (91-G.White).
- (2:18) 5-Q.Gray sacked at JAX 12 for -10 yards (sack split by 90-G.Adams and 91-G.White).
- (2:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle to JAX 21 for 9 yards (51-B.Ruud, 23-J.Phillips).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 3-A.Podlesh punts 42 yards to TB 37, Center-88-J.Zelenka. 31-P.Buchanon pushed ob at TB 44 for 7 yards (59-B.Iwuh). PENALTY on TB-56-R.Nece, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 44.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.40 pts |
| Play action | -3.18 pts |
| Curl route | -3.34 pts |
| End-around | -4.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.17 pts |
| Deep post | -5.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.