Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 17, 2007
The Panthers took over leading 31-23 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 23. Panthers won 31-23 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 7, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) 34-D.Williams up the middle to CAR 8 for 1 yard (98-R.Sims).
- (4:07) 34-D.Williams right guard to CAR 9 for 1 yard (71-J.Haye).
- (3:25) 34-D.Williams left guard to CAR 17 for 8 yards (26-W.Allen).
- (2:42) 24-A.Haynes left guard to CAR 20 for 3 yards (98-R.Sims).
- (2:36) 24-A.Haynes up the middle to CAR 18 for -2 yards (39-K.Pearson, 98-R.Sims).
- (2:30) 34-D.Williams left end to CAR 22 for 4 yards (57-A.Hayward, 22-S.Davis).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 7-J.Baker punts 35 yards to TB 43, Center-56-J.Kyle, fair catch by 17-M.Spurlock.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.96 pts |
| Play action | -3.32 pts |
| Curl route | -3.67 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.51 pts |
| Deep post | -9.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.