Cowboys vs Packers — Week 13, 2007
The Cowboys took over leading 34-27 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 37, Packers 27. Cowboys won 37-27 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 37, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 91.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) 24-M.Barber left tackle to DAL 41 for 4 yards (50-A.Hawk).
- (4:06) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 82-J.Witten to GB 44 for 15 yards (20-A.Bigby). Crossing pattern.
- (3:17) 24-M.Barber right tackle to GB 41 for 3 yards (74-A.Kampman). PENALTY on GB-20-A.Bigby, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 41.
- (3:10) 24-M.Barber right tackle to GB 20 for 6 yards (74-A.Kampman).
- (2:59) 24-M.Barber left tackle to GB 16 for 4 yards (51-B.Poppinga).
- (2:15) 24-M.Barber up the middle to GB 14 for 2 yards (91-J.Harrell).
- (2:00) 24-M.Barber right end to GB 9 for 5 yards (50-A.Hawk).
- (1:51) 24-M.Barber up the middle to GB 7 for 2 yards (77-C.Jenkins).
- (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-14-B.Johnson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.69 pts |
| Curl route | -2.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -8.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.