Vikings vs Raiders — Week 11, 2007
The Vikings took over leading 29-22 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 29, Raiders 22. Vikings won 29-22 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 40, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 94.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 49-T.Richardson to MIN 48 for 8 yards (53-T.Howard).
- (3:10) 29-C.Taylor right tackle to LV 47 for 5 yards (52-K.Morrison).
- (3:08) 29-C.Taylor up the middle to LV 47 for no gain (52-K.Morrison).
- (3:03) 7-T.Jackson left guard to LV 39 for 8 yards (52-K.Morrison).
- (2:15) 29-C.Taylor left tackle to LV 38 for 1 yard (94-J.Alston).
- (2:00) 5-C.Kluwe punts 21 yards to LV 17, Center-46-C.Loeffler, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.