Panthers vs Falcons — Week 3, 2007
The Panthers took over leading 27-20 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Falcons 20. Panthers won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Panthers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 22, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 26-D.Foster right tackle to CAR 34 for 12 yards (92-C.Davis).
- (2:13) 26-D.Foster right tackle to CAR 35 for 1 yard (59-M.Boley).
- (2:08) 26-D.Foster up the middle to CAR 48 for 13 yards (51-D.Williams).
- (2:00) 34-D.Williams right tackle to CAR 49 for 1 yard (90-G.Jackson).
- (1:54) 26-D.Foster up the middle to ATL 40 for 11 yards (36-L.Milloy).
- (1:10) 8-D.Carr kneels to ATL 40 for no gain.
- (:32) 8-D.Carr kneels to ATL 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.04 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.