Eagles vs Vikings — Week 8, 2007
The Eagles took over leading 23-16 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 23, Vikings 16. Eagles won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) 36-B.Westbrook left guard to PHI 25 for 5 yards (56-E.Henderson).
- (2:38) 5-D.McNabb pass short right to 80-K.Curtis pushed ob at PHI 37 for 12 yards (42-D.Sharper).
- (2:00) 36-B.Westbrook up the middle to PHI 32 for -5 yards (26-A.Winfield, 94-P.Williams).
- (1:56) 36-B.Westbrook up the middle to PHI 32 for no gain (91-R.Edwards).
- (1:12) 36-B.Westbrook right tackle to PHI 34 for 2 yards (95-K.Udeze; 94-P.Williams).
- (:27) 6-S.Rocca punts 65 yards to MIN 1, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-B.Wade to MIN 9 for 8 yards (Team).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.