Ravens vs Jets — Week 2, 2007
The Ravens took over leading 20-13 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 20, Jets 13. Ravens won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 33, 3:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:12) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete deep left to 87-D.Williams (36-D.Barrett).
- (3:10) 23-W.McGahee left guard to BAL 38 for 5 yards (25-K.Rhodes).
- (2:55) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Mason.
- (2:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-70-M.Katula, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.73 pts |
| Curl route | -3.06 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.25 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.