Eagles vs Bills — Week 17, 2007
The Eagles took over leading 17-9 with 3:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Bills 9. Eagles won 17-9 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 11, 3:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 94.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:35) 5-D.McNabb pass short left to 84-H.Baskett to PHI 16 for 5 yards (33-J.Greer).
- (2:54) 5-D.McNabb pass short right to 80-K.Curtis to PHI 23 for 7 yards (90-C.Kelsay).
- (2:10) 28-C.Buckhalter right tackle to PHI 23 for no gain (43-B.Scott).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass deep right to 83-G.Lewis to BUF 37 for 40 yards (26-A.Youboty).
- (1:56) 28-C.Buckhalter up the middle to BUF 42 for -5 yards (24-T.McGee).
- (1:52) 28-C.Buckhalter right end to BUF 45 for -3 yards (90-C.Kelsay).
- (1:07) 28-C.Buckhalter up the middle to BUF 34 for 11 yards (52-J.DiGiorgio).
- (:10) 6-S.Rocca punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.13 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.76 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -3.16 pts |
| Curl route | -3.53 pts |
| End-around | -5.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.48 pts |
| Deep post | -9.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.