Titans vs Texans — Week 13, 2007
The Titans took over leading 28-20 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 28, Texans 20. Titans won 28-20 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for Titans. Our model starts at 92.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) 29-C.Brown right guard to TEN 25 for no gain (59-D.Ryans).
- (4:10) 10-V.Young pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Williams (32-F.Bennett).
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young pass deep left to 83-E.Moulds to TEN 47 for 22 yards (38-D.Faggins, 96-E.Cochran).
- (3:53) 29-C.Brown left tackle to TEN 47 for no gain (96-E.Cochran, 91-A.Okoye).
- (3:50) 10-V.Young sacked at TEN 38 for -9 yards (90-M.Williams).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young up the middle to TEN 48 for 10 yards (56-M.Greenwood).
- (2:59) (Punt formation) 15-C.Hentrich punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-40-J.Cain. 12-J.Jones to HOU 14 for -1 yards (40-J.Cain).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.80 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.16 pts |
| Deep post | -8.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.