Jaguars vs Broncos — Week 3, 2007
The Jaguars took over leading 20-14 with 4:12 left, 1st & Goal at the Broncos 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 23, Broncos 14. Jaguars won 23-14 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At the Broncos 4, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 96.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) 32-M.Jones-Drew up the middle to DEN 1 for 3 yards (25-N.Ferguson).
- (3:38) 86-D.Northcutt left end to DEN 1 for 4 yards (58-N.Webster).
- (2:58) 9-D.Garrard left end to DEN 1 for no gain (32-D.Bly).
- (2:13) 1-J.Carney 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +1.96 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.92 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.04 pts |
| Quick out | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| QB keep | -1.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.86 pts |
| Play action | -3.24 pts |
| Curl route | -3.72 pts |
| End-around | -5.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.49 pts |
| Deep post | -9.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.