Vikings vs Bears — Week 6, 2007
The Vikings took over leading 31-24 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 34, Bears 31. Vikings won 34-31 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Bears territory, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Vikings. Our model starts at 97.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:34) 29-C.Taylor right tackle to CHI 41 for -2 yards (92-H.Hillenmeyer).
- (2:30) 28-A.Peterson left end to CHI 41 for no gain (54-B.Urlacher).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right guard to CHI 46 for -5 yards (95-A.Adams).
- (2:00) 5-C.Kluwe punts 27 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-C.Loeffler, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -1.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.26 pts |
| QB keep | -1.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Field goal | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -3.10 pts |
| Curl route | -3.52 pts |
| End-around | -5.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.56 pts |
| Deep post | -9.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.