Chargers vs Titans — Week 14, 2007
The Chargers took over trailing 17-10 with 2:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Titans 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:24 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 6.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-L.Tomlinson pushed ob at LAC 23 for 3 yards (37-C.Lowry).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 21-L.Tomlinson to LAC 25 for 2 yards (50-D.Thornton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-L.Tomlinson ran ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards [93-K.Vanden Bosch]. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete to 21-L.Tomlinson [93-K.Vanden Bosch].
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 89-C.Chambers to LAC 44 for 19 yards (37-C.Lowry) [91-T.LaBoy]. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 89-C.Chambers [91-T.LaBoy].
- (1:29) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 89-C.Chambers to TEN 28 for 28 yards (37-C.Lowry).
- (1:00) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 89-C.Chambers.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates pushed ob at TEN 16 for 7 yards (20-N.Harper).
- (:46) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-A.Pinnock to TEN 11 for 5 yards (52-R.Fowler).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 86-B.Manumaleuna.
- (:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-L.Tomlinson pushed ob at TEN 2 for 9 yards (22-V.Fuller, 31-C.Finnegan).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 85-A.Gates.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Curl route | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| End-around | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Spike it | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.